Forecasting

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The information gathered from external environmental scanning and assessment of internal strengths and weaknesses is used to predict or forecast HR supply and demand in light of organizational objectives and strategies. Forecasting uses information from the past and present to identify expected future conditions. Projections for the future are, of course, subject to error. Changes in the conditions on which the projections are based might even completely invalidate them, which is the chance forecasters take. Usually, though, experienced people are able to forecast with enough accuracy to benefit organizational long-range planning.

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Approaches to forecasting human resources range from a manager’s best guess to a rigorous and complex computer simulation. Simple assumptions may be sufficient in certain instances, but complex models may be necessary for others.

It is beyond the scope of this text to discuss in detail the numerous methods of forecasting available, but a few of the more prominent ones will be highlighted.

Despite the availability of sophisticated mathematical models and techniques, forecasting is still a combination of quantitative method and subjective judg- ment. The facts must be evaluated and weighed by knowledgeable individuals, such as managers and HR experts, who use the mathematical models as a tool rather than relying on them blindly.

Forecasting Periods HR forecasting should be done over three planning periods: short range, intermediate, and long range. The most commonly used planning period is short range, usually a period of six months to one year. This level of planning is routine in many organizations because very few assumptions about the future are necessary for such short-range plans. These short-range forecasts offer the best estimates of the immediate HR needs of an organization. Intermediate and long-range forecasting are much more difficult processes. Intermediate plans usually project one to five years into the future, and long-range plans extend beyond five years.

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Human Resource Forecasting Assignment

Human Resource Forecasting Assignment 

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Table 1                     Turnover
Employee Category | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
Old Branch Supervisor | 40 | 40 | 40 |
Old Branch Tellers | 150 | 150 | 150 |
Main Office | 80 | 80 | 80 |
New Branch Supervisor | 4 | 13 | 24 |
New Branch Tellers | 15 | 48 | 90 |
Total | 289 | 331 | 384 |

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Table 1 shows the Turnover of National Bank of Pakistan in three years. In 1st ,2nd   and 3rd   year old Branch supervisor are 40, Old branch Tellers in 1st ,2nd   and 3rd   year are 150, Main office are 80 in all three years, new branch supervisor are 4 in 1st year , 13 in 2nd and 24 in the 3rd year, while New branch teller in 1st year is 15, 48 in 2nd year while 90 in the 3rd year . Total turnover in 1st year is 289, 331 in 2nd year and 384 in 3rd year. This table shows that 2nd year total turnover is > than 1st year and 3rd year total turnover is > than 1st and 2nd both. This shows that the nation bank of Pakistan has lack of facilities, reputation of bank is not well and employee satisfaction is very low because due to increase in turnover ratio. 
Table 2 Number of Employees to be hired
Employee Category | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
Old Branch Supervisor | 40 | 40 | 40 |
Old Branch Tellers | 110 | 110 | 110 |
Main Office | 80 | 80 | 80 |
New Branch Supervisor | 44 | 61 | 88 |
New Branch Tellers | 115 | 168 | 250 |
Total | 389 | 459 | 568 |

Table 2 shows the no of employees hired by the National Bank of Pakistan in three years. In 1st ,2nd   and 3rd   year old Branch supervisor are 40, Old branch Tellers in 1st ,2nd   and 3rd   year are 110, Main office are 80 in all three years, new branch supervisor are 44 in 1st year , 61 in 2nd and 88 in the 3rd year while New branch teller in 1st year is 115, 168 in 2nd year and 250 in the 3rd year . Total number of employees hired...

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Human Resource Forecasting Assignment

Fall-2013

Master of Business Administration - MBA Semester 1

MB0043–Human Resource Management-4 Credits

(Book ID: B1626)

Assignment (60 Marks)

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Note: Answers for 10 marks questions should be approximately of 400 words. Each question is followed by evaluation scheme. Each Question carries 10 marks 6 X 10=60.

Q1. The success of HR plans depends on the accuracy of HR forecasts. What is the meaning of this HR forecasting? Describe the following HR forecasting techniques: (a) Index/ Trend analysis and (b) Expert forecasting.

Answer. Human resources forecasting involves projecting labor needs and the effects they’ll have on a business. An HR department forecasts both short- and long-term staffing needs based on projected sales, office growth, attrition and other factors that affect a company’s need for labor. In addition to forecasting the number and type of workers you’ll need, HR planning includes analyzing the various costs and administrative work that go along with adding workers or downsizing.

Q2. Write a brief note on: (i) Selection test and (ii) Interviews.

Answer. (i) Various Selection tests:

Achievement or Performance test: - These tests measure the applicants’ ability to do the work. Applicants is simply asked to demonstrate his ability like typing test for the job of typist of making Programme in particular computer language for the job of software development.

Intelligence test/ Aptitude test: - This test tries to measure the intelligence of the applicant. It includes verbal comprehension,

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Q3. What do you mean by management development? What are its objectives and methods?

Answer. Management development is the process by which managers learn and improve their management skills. Most management development does not involve outside classes. Management development is the overall concept that describes the many ways that organizations help employees develop their personal and organizational skills, either as managers in a management job or with an eventual

Q4. Suppose you have joined as HR executive in a software company. The first task you have been assigned is to work on Career planning. What are the various career programs will you consider?

Answer. Career Programs are educational programs that combine related courses with a work component within a particular career sector. They are designed to address the goal of transition to the workplace or further education and training. Career Programs enhance the goal of career development which is one of the three goals of

Q5. Define performance review. What are the types of appraisal methods? Describe the ways to evaluate an employee individually.

Answer. Performance Appraisals is the assessment of individual’s performance in a systematic way. It is a developmental tool used for all round development of the employee and the organization. The performance is measured against such factors as job knowledge, quality and quantity of output, initiative, leadership abilities, supervision, dependability, co-operation, judgment, versatility and health. Assessment should be

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Q6. Many organisations maintain a disciplinary policy or system to regulate the behaviour of the employees and deal with acts of indiscipline. Describe such various disciplinary action – penalties in business organisations.

Answer. Listing:

1. Not warning the employee at the outset of the possible consequences of the disciplinary action.

2. Not setting out the nature of the accusations clearly to the employee.

3. Not furnishing the employee with relevant evidence against him or her.

4. Not operating a system of warnings where appropriate.

5. Not allowing the employee to be accompanied